Bets vs. Experiments

By | December 20, 2022

In the last couple of years, the conversation around product development has shifted from "experiments" to "bets". As a Product Manager, I don't perceive a significant difference between the two concepts, but I think the change in terminology has had a positive impact on my discussions with management.

The language of betting helps convey the idea of an investment that comes with a certain amount of risk, and the nuanced conversations it creates provide more emotional engagement than when using the language of experimentation.

 I find that the rich language of betting helps provide flavor to conversations. 

This is going to require a hard eight! 

This is going to pay 15 to 1!

Should we go all-in on this one?

Would you bet $5,000 of your own money on the success of this effort? Why? Why not? On what terms? For what return? How would we know whether you had won/lost the bet? What might we learn early on that would encourage you to increase your bet to $10,000? Or decrease your bet to $1,000, or $0?
                                                                   - John Cutler

For example, instead of asking if an experiment should be conducted, we can ask if we should make a "safe bet" or a "risky one", and what the payoff will be if we win. This enhanced level of engagement has proven valuable in deciding which bets to prioritize and discussing the possible business impacts.

I find that discussions about a bet automatically engage the stakeholders in a way that was lacking when talking about experiments. There's something cold and distant about running an experiment  that created dispassionate dialogues. Now, when I'm working to prioritize bets stakeholders are more eager to participate. 

To whoever first proposed the idea of product bets, thank you!